Craps Strategy

Craps uses two dice, but its layout contains several different kinds of wager. Some are decided by the next roll; others remain unresolved until a particular total or seven appears. Understanding when a bet starts and ends is essential before comparing payouts.

Pass line and odds

On the come-out roll, a pass-line bet wins on seven or eleven and loses on two, three or twelve. A four, five, six, eight, nine or ten establishes the point. The bet then wins if that point is repeated before seven, and loses if seven appears first.

An odds bet supplements an established pass-line bet after a point is set. The permitted size depends on the table. It is a separate amount at risk: adding it does not undo a loss on the original bet.

Place the chips half-on and half-off the bottom of the pass line. If on the next roll a 4 is hit you win your pass line bet back, and an additional sum of money derived from the odds bet. In this case, the payoff is 2 to1 on the odds bet. The actual number the point is set to determines the payout on odds bets. If the point is set to 4 or 10, odds bets are paid back at 2 to 1 odds. If the point is set to 5 or 9, odds bets are paid back at 3 to 2 odds. If the point is set to 6 or 8, odds bets are paid back at 6 to 5 odds.

The pass-line house advantage is approximately 1.41% of the initial stake under the usual rules. An odds wager paid at true odds has zero expected house advantage on that additional wager. Adding it lowers the percentage advantage measured against the larger combined amount, but does not reduce the expected loss on the original pass-line stake. It increases the money exposed to individual outcomes.

The following percentages use the combined average amount committed, including odds only when a point is established. They are long-run mathematical comparisons, not forecasts for a session.

The don’t pass bet

The don’t-pass bet reverses the point stage: seven must arrive before the point. On the come-out roll, the usual bar-twelve version wins on two or three, loses on seven or eleven, and pushes on twelve. Check which total is barred on the actual layout. The push is part of the reason the pass and don’t-pass bets are not exact mathematical opposites.

The come bet

Say I wanted to make a come bet, and the point had been set to 5. I would put my come bet down in the come section and wait for the next roll. If a 7 or 11 is hit you win (while the shooter looses), and you lose on a craps shot (2, 3 or 12). If it’s any one of the other numbers, this becomes your ‘come point’. If your ‘come point’ is rolled before a 7, you win. So say a 9 is rolled, at that time the stickman moves your come bet to the 9 on the board. Now if the shooter rolls a 9 before a 7 you win, if they roll a 7 before a 9 you lose. Also remember that on come bets you also have the ability to place “odds” bets just like pass line bets after your ‘come-point’ is established.

A come bet starts after a point has been established for the shooter, but has its own first roll and, if needed, its own come point. Several unresolved bets can therefore refer to different numbers. Keep their resolution conditions separate instead of treating everything on the layout as one wager.

The don’t come bet

The Don’t Come Bet
The don’t come bet is the opposite of the come bet, much in the same way the don’t pass bet is the opposite of the pass bet. The don’t come bet must be made after a point is set by the shooter. If a 7 or 11 is rolled you lose, if a 2 or 3 is rolled you win, and a 12 is a standoff. Otherwise a come point is set and you win if a 7 is rolled before the come point is repeated, and lose if the come point is repeated before a 7 is rolled. The don’t come bar is highlighted in our graphic.

Laying odds behind a don’t-come bet pays the inverse ratios of taking odds: a more likely winning event pays less relative to the amount risked. A high chance of winning an individual bet is not the same as positive expected value.

The hardway bet

A hard four is two twos, a hard six is two threes, a hard eight is two fours, and a hard ten is two fives. A hardway bet requires that double before seven or another combination making the same total. For example, three-five is an easy eight, while four-four is a hard eight.

At payouts of 7 to 1 for hard four and ten, the house advantage is about 11.11%. At 9 to 1 for hard six and eight, it is about 9.09%. Other displayed payouts change those figures. Count the losing outcomes as well as the winning double when making a comparison.

The buy bet

A buy bet requires a selected number to appear before seven. The underlying true-odds ratios are 2 to 1 on four or ten, 3 to 2 on five or nine, and 6 to 5 on six or eight. A commission changes the overall value. Whether it is charged upfront or only on a win, and how it is rounded, affects the calculation.

Do not describe a buy bet as favourable to the player merely because it pays a larger amount than a place bet. Compare the whole transaction, including commission and the amount at risk. The payout alone does not establish an advantage.

Proposition bets

• “any seven” bet With the “any seven” bet you’re betting the shooter will hit a 7 on the next roll. Horrible house edge, never make this bet.
• “snake eyes” bet With the “snake eyes” bet you’re betting the shooter will throw a two on the next roll.
• “yo eleven” bet With the “yo eleven” bet you’re betting the shooter will hit an 11 on the next roll.
• “any craps” bet With the “any craps” bet you’re betting the shooter will throw a 2, 3, or 12 on the next roll.
• “any three” bet With the “any three” bet you’re betting the shooter will throw a 3 on the next roll.
• “midnight” 12 bet With the “midnight” bet you’re betting the shooter will throw a 12 on the next roll.
• “horn” bet With the “horn” bet you’re combining the snake eyes, 3, yo 11, and midnight bets.

These are examples of common payouts and the house advantage they imply. The figures are conditional on the stated payout. A different layout needs a different calculation.

The field bet

A field bet is resolved on one roll. It wins on two, three, four, nine, ten, eleven or twelve, and loses on five, six, seven or eight. There are sixteen winning dice combinations and twenty losing combinations, so the additional payouts on two and twelve are important.

If both two and twelve pay 2 to 1 and the other winners pay even money, the house advantage is 2/36, or approximately 5.56%. If one of those totals pays 3 to 1 and the other pays 2 to 1, it is 1/36, or approximately 2.78%. Neither figure means the player will lose exactly that percentage in a short session.

The place bet

The Place Bet
The place bet is a variation of betting with a number. You can make a place bet anytime by handing the dealer your bet and saying ‘I want to place the 8’ or whatever number you want to place bet for. You can make a place bet at any time on any of 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10. If the number you have ‘placed’ is hit before a 7, you win and you’re paid as follows: 4 or 10 placed – 9:5 odds, 5 or 9 placed – 7:5 odds, 6 or 8 placed – 7:6 odds.

Place bets are ordinarily inactive on a come-out roll unless called working under the table’s procedure. Their timing is not the same as a pass-line wager. Ask how a wager is treated before assuming it is active or protected; an unresolved bet can remain on the layout between rolls.

The lay bet

A lay bet requires seven before the chosen four, five, six, eight, nine or ten. Before commission, the true-odds payouts are 1 to 2 on four or ten, 2 to 3 on five or nine, and 5 to 6 on six or eight. The smaller payout reflects the greater probability of seven occurring first. Commission and rounding must be included when comparing the actual wager.

Keep probability and session results separate

With fair independent dice, the previous rolls do not make a particular total due. A long sequence without seven does not change the next roll’s six combinations out of thirty-six. Betting more after a loss changes the amount at risk, not that probability.

A useful comparison records the winning condition, losing condition, payout and all fees. It does not turn a game into an income plan. Set a limit that does not affect essential spending and stop rather than trying to recover losses. The companion Blackjack Strategy page explains why a decision chart and a stake progression are different ideas.